Welcome to roster.watch prediction game!

This is how the game works:

On any of the upcoming events listed below, you can submit the probabilities of each fighter winning their respective fights. E.g. 65-35.

After the fights, these probabilities will be scored using reverse Brier score.

In general, it is assumed that the optimal way for the best Brier score is to submit what you believe is the true probability for each outcome rather than, say, 100-0 to who you think will win. But feel free to experiment.

In addition to fellow human beings, you will be competing against 4 automated accounts:

• roster.watch Elo: predicts roster.watch Elo probabilities.
• roster.watch Elo 100%: predicts 100% probability for the fighter with the higher Elo rating.
• 50-50: predicts each fight at 50-50 as a very simple baseline.
• User Average: predicts the average of all human predictions.